Saturday, December 02, 2006

How would you play it?

Blinds are 300/600. Ante is 20.

My M is less than 5, let's say 4.5. I'm around 3,700 in chips.

I'm 18th out of 22 left.

18 paid spots.

$20 + $2 tournament, a relatively high buy in for me, but with $1,000 added and 131 players, I have to take a shot at it.

Mansion Poker. The players have been only fair for the most part.

I have built up a very tight image. Several folds to my all-ins with marginal hands.

Of the three stacks behind me in the whole tournament, one has an M of less than 1, the two others have around 2500 in chips, or an M of 3.

The closest stack above me has 4,500 in chips, or one more M than me.

I have seen some re-raises folded because we're near the bubble.

I can still take a huge chunk out of someone's stack, given that the average is around 6,000, so I still have fold equity.

A cash would mean something, given that it's 2xs the buy-in, and I usually average about $300 a month profit, a month I'm always happy with.

A guy in EP raises 3x the big blind. He has me covered with about 8,000 in chips.

EDIT: You have JJ.

What's your move?


TripJax said...

What is your hand?

Guin said...

Given your image you might be able to get the guy to fold... would rather you focus on the first in vigor idea though.

EP is showing strength so unless you have a great read that he is stealing then I would let almost any hand go...

you didn't mention your holdings but you must have a pocket pair or AK-AQ type holding to be asking the question.

Fuel55 said...

Respect the EP raise and fold unless you have AK or 99 or higher. then push.

Michael Albert said...

With JJ, and the circumstances suggesting that you need to win at least one pot in order to survive to the money, I think you need to push here.

Unless he was on a complete steal, I don't think that there's any chance he will fold getting 3:1 odds on the call, but you're a coinflip against reasonably tight ranges like AQ+, 99+ with the overlay of the (hopefully dead) money in the blinds.

TripJax said...

Still a little bit of info i'd be interested in to say for sure (how many people at table, what position are you in, etc...)

However, in this situation I am looking to amass chips to make a run for a final table. 2X the buy-in is ok, but I think I have the best hand there and I'm getting my chips in the middle. If he folds, I show that I'm willing to make moves at pots and not afraid to control the action. If he calls, I still think I have the best hand. If not, so be it...but I can still hit my hand and win.

I no longer fear going broke near the bubble. It costs me some buy-ins on occasion, but I make it to the final table more often that way. Amassing chips wins tournaments. Tight bubble play wins buy-ins back. I want 50 times my buy-in, not 2 times my buy-in.

Just my 2 cents...good luck. And yes, sometime soon I'd love to play one of these. I'll look for you on the girlie chat thing when I can...

cc said...

Shove. Getting your money back is not the object in these MTT's. You have to do more than that for a fair shake at decent ROI, IMO.

HighOnPoker said...

At first, I thought you were ITM already and I thought that you had to push with such a low M. Now seeing that you were essentially at the bubble, well, you gotta push anyway. You shouldn't be playing for 18th place, but even if you are, you still need the exact four people below you to bust without doubling up. Most likely one of them will double up and then you'll be the shortstack on the bubble if you don't make any moves. You have JJ, so what more can you ask for. Push, sir, and do so with confidence. Otherwise, you will have a tough time of making the money anyway, whereas a push might allow you to steal the pot and fold to the money OR win it and double up to go deeper into the money.

Chipper said...

Despite your tight image, most of the table has probably NOT seen you play. JJ is a hand that can lose quite easily in a HU with overcards against you. A raise from early position is to be respected. I'd say at best you can expect a horse race and would have to avoid all the over cards. If you are not last to bet, you may have to face another better hand raising behind you. You're in a tough position but you'll probably not be getting a better hand soon. If you're going to be looking for an all-in this would be it - but chances are you're in for a tough race. Put your money in with good hands, JJ is OK (as they say) but not primo. I'd reluctantly have to fold. If you'd have been 1st to bet, however, then this would be an easy push.

Drizztdj said...

I'd push, most likely you'll get called and shown AT-AK and beg for no A,K,Q to come out.